California Governor's Race Takes Shape: Becerra Leads, But His November Opponent Is Still Unknown

California just had its most wide-open governor's race in decades — and it's still not fully settled.

Here's the short version: Xavier Becerra, Biden's former Health and Human Services Secretary, has locked in the top spot for November's general election. But who he'll face is still anyone's guess, with millions of ballots yet to be counted.

How California's primary works

First, a quick explainer on why this is so unusual. California uses what's called a "jungle primary" — all candidates, from every party, compete on one ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to November. That means you could get two Democrats, two Republicans, or one of each. Voters decide.

The three candidates who matter

Going into vote-counting, three names separated from the pack: Becerra (Democrat), Steve Hilton (Republican), and Tom Steyer (Democrat). With about two-thirds of ballots tallied, Becerra had roughly 27%, Hilton 26%, and Steyer 21%. That gap between Hilton and Steyer for second place is extremely tight — and with 3.5 million ballots still uncounted as of the reporting, it could flip.

Becerra's comeback story

Honestly, Becerra being here at all is kind of wild. Just four months ago, he was polling at 3%. Supporters are calling it "the Becerra bounce." The turning point? Eric Swalwell — the former congressman who had been gaining momentum — saw his campaign implode in April over sexual assault and harassment allegations. He resigned from Congress, denied the assault claims, and his supporters largely migrated to Becerra.

Who are Hilton and Steyer?

Steve Hilton is a former Fox News host who became a U.S. citizen in 2021 after spending most of his life in the UK. He has Trump's endorsement and is campaigning on tax cuts, slashing regulations, and boosting homeownership. He's framing himself as the agent of change after 16 years of Democratic control in Sacramento.

Tom Steyer is a Democratic billionaire — a climate activist and former hedge fund manager — who has poured over $213 million of his own money into this race, making it the most expensive gubernatorial campaign in California history. He's running on single-payer health care, taxing oil companies, and a wealth tax on billionaires. Yes, he is a billionaire campaigning to tax billionaires.

Why it matters who Becerra faces

This part is important. If Hilton is Becerra's opponent, Becerra is considered the heavy favorite — Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly two-to-one in California. But if Steyer advances instead, it becomes a much more competitive intraparty fight between a mainstream Democrat and a progressive billionaire, and the outcome is far less predictable.

The bigger picture

Whoever wins in November leads the country's most populous state — one staring down a major budget deficit, a housing and homelessness crisis, and ongoing wildfire risk. And with Gavin Newsom term-limited out, that person could quickly become one of the most prominent figures in national Democratic politics.

One more thing worth watching: Trump has alleged, without evidence, that Democrats are committing election fraud in California's slow ballot count. A federal prosecutor announced multiple probes into alleged voting fraud. Election experts say widespread mail-in fraud is rare — but the claims add political noise to an already tense count.