Ken Paxton Wins Texas GOP Senate Runoff, Sets Up Marquee Race Against James Talarico

So here's the deal: Texas just got a whole lot more interesting heading into November.

Ken Paxton — the state's controversial Attorney General — pulled off a landslide win Tuesday night in the Republican Senate primary runoff, defeating four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by nearly 30 points. President Trump proved his political muscle in Texas, as his endorsed candidate won in a landslide — Paxton beat Cornyn by nearly 30 points. That sets up what's shaping up to be one of the most expensive and bitterly fought Senate races in the country this fall.

The matchup is now official: Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Senate primary runoff and will face Democrat James Talarico in the November general election.

Why does Paxton winning — instead of Cornyn — actually matter? Simple: it makes the race more competitive. With Paxton's win, the Senate seat in Texas became much more competitive than it would have been had Cornyn won. Cook Political Report moved the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" moments after the race was called. In political handicapping terms, that's a significant shift — it means analysts now think Democrats have a real shot.

Who's Ken Paxton? He's no stranger to headlines — and not always for good reasons. In 2015, he was indicted on securities fraud charges (later dropped in 2024). In 2023, the GOP-majority Texas House impeached him for bribery and dereliction of duty in a 121-23 vote — though he was later acquitted by the state Senate. Democrats are already leaning hard into that baggage.

And who's James Talarico? He's a 37-year-old Democrat without a long political career like Paxton, but he's made a name for himself in the state. He's framing the race as an economic fight. Affordability and cost of living is the top issue among voters polled, and that concern has been at the forefront of Talarico's economic populist message since he announced his run.

Now, about the money — and this part is wild. The Texas Senate race is already the second most expensive race in the country this year, after the California governor's election, with more than $108 million spent so far. And Paxton is already at a major disadvantage on that front. Paxton has raised $7.6 million, with just $2.3 million left to spend as of May 6. Compare that to Talarico: Talarico has raised more than $40 million — though he spent most of it in his primary — and pulled in $600,000 in just two hours following Paxton's win.

Some Republicans are already sounding the alarm. One GOP consultant noted that party groups will likely have to quadruple their original spending for the race, with contributions potentially reaching $100 million — pulling resources away from other key battlegrounds as Republicans defend their Senate majority.

The attacks are already flying in both directions. Paxton's team is going after Talarico on cultural issues — including past comments about gender and religion. One "vegan" accusation lobbed at Talarico isn't even true — he posted a photo of himself eating a turkey leg to disprove it, but that isn't stopping Republicans from pushing the narrative anyway. Meanwhile, Talarico is hammering Paxton's scandals and calling him "the most corrupt politician in America."

Why should you care, even if you don't live in Texas? Because this race could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and has not won a U.S. Senate race there since 1988. But a post-runoff poll from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Talarico currently leading Paxton in the race. That doesn't mean Democrats win — Texas is still deeply red — but it means this one is worth watching closely.

Bottom line: Trump got the candidate he wanted. Now the question is whether Paxton's baggage-heavy profile hands Democrats an opening they haven't had in decades.