Oil Prices Near $100 a Barrel as Middle East Disruption Rattles Markets

If you've noticed gas prices climbing or your grocery bill creeping up, here's the story behind it — and it's a big one.

In late February 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched joint military strikes against Iran, kicking off what's now being called the 2026 Iran war. The war began with joint US-Israel strikes on February 28 — a Saturday when oil markets were closed. The strikes killed several key Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran hit back fast, striking infrastructure across Gulf capitals and throwing the region into chaos.

The single most important number to understand here is the Strait of Hormuz. It's a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman — basically the world's most critical oil bottleneck. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted 20% of global oil supplies and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas. Think of it like someone sitting on the world's main oil pipeline. That's the lever Iran pulled.

The market reaction was immediate and brutal. Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — surged more than 55% since the war started, jumping from around $72 a barrel on February 27 to nearly $120 at its peak. March alone saw a 51% jump, one of the largest single-month oil price surges on record. For context, that kind of move normally takes years.

Things escalated further when key energy infrastructure got hit. After Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field, Tehran retaliated by striking at Ras Laffan, a major energy facility in Qatar, sending energy prices surging even higher. That attack on Qatar's LNG complex caused a 17% reduction in Qatar's LNG production capacity, with damages estimated to take 3–5 years to fully repair — and LNG spot prices in Asia jumped over 140%.

So what does this mean for you personally? Quite a bit, actually. Gas prices in the United States rose $1.16 a gallon since the war began, with prices threatening to hit $5.00 a gallon if the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut past mid-April. Jet fuel in North America spiked 95% since the war began, causing airlines to raise prices for checked baggage. Shipping services including USPS, Amazon, and FedEx implemented fuel surcharges. That means higher prices on things you buy online and at the store — oil price shocks ripple through everything that gets transported, which is basically everything.

A fragile ceasefire was brokered in early April, but it hasn't held cleanly. Iran, the U.S., and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, beginning on April 8. But the Strait has remained a flashpoint. Even after the ceasefire announcement, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained far below pre-war levels.

By late May, there was some relief. Global oil prices tumbled around 20% from their 2026 highs as investors grew more optimistic about a lasting ceasefire deal. Brent crude fell to around $92.56 on the last trading day of May — the benchmark's worst monthly drop since the COVID-19 pandemic.

But don't pop the champagne yet. One senior market advisor warned that prices will likely stay between $90 and $100 a barrel "at least for the next couple of months," noting that even if the Strait reopens, that opening will "only be partial" — and significant damage to Gulf infrastructure, refineries, and pipelines means the market stays tight.

The head of the International Energy Agency called this the "greatest global energy security challenge in history" — and the economic shockwaves are far from over. The war's impact on your wallet — at the gas pump, at checkout, on your next flight — is going to linger well into 2027 regardless of how diplomacy plays out.