Vance Flies to Switzerland as Iran Claims Strait of Hormuz Shut — Nuclear Talks Begin Sunday

There's a lot happening at once here, and it all connects — so let's break it down.

Earlier this week, the U.S. and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding (think of it as a detailed handshake deal, not a final treaty) aimed at ending the war between them. That agreement was meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately and kick off broader direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on a range of issues, including Tehran's nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz, for context, is a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf through which about 20% of the world's oil supply travels. It had been largely closed for months, which hammered global energy prices.

Here's where things got messy fast.

On Saturday, Iran said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz because of Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon and warned that while negotiators were going to Switzerland for talks with the United States on their interim agreement, not much likely will happen if the fighting doesn't stop. Iran's military framed it as a direct response to the U.S. failing to deliver on the deal — specifically, failing to stop Israel from striking Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran said it was closing the strait over the violation of the first clause in the 14-point MOU, which called for the war to stop on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, Hezbollah and Israel continued to trade attacks and accuse each other of violating the ceasefire agreed to on Friday. Iran also considers it a violation of the MOU for Israel not to pull forces out of Lebanese territory, something Israel says it will not do.

The U.S. shot back immediately. The U.S. disputed Iran's announcement on the strait. "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic continues to flow, and U.S. forces are monitoring the situation to ensure this remains the case," said Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command. The military said 55 merchant ships transited Saturday with more than 17 million barrels of oil. In other words: ships are still moving, regardless of what Tehran claims.

Trump piled on with a threat of his own. President Donald Trump threatened to impose U.S. tolls in the crucial waterway if a final deal with Iran isn't reached in 60 days, saying the money would be for "services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East."

Despite all the noise, both sides still sent negotiators to Switzerland. Key mediator Pakistan said the technical-level talks will begin on Sunday in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, with Qatari mediators also participating. Vance told reporters he would be in Switzerland "for a day or two" but was optimistic about making progress in talks about Iran's nuclear program and on a ceasefire in southern Lebanon. He earlier confirmed that top negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were already in Switzerland.

But Iran's team arrived with a very clear message: don't expect much. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Bagahei signaled that little might happen in talks until Iran feels the U.S. is living up to the deal. Negotiations toward a final agreement will begin only once key commitments are upheld, Bagahei said. If they are not, "the memorandum of understanding as a whole will be jeopardized."

The Lebanon problem is the real wildcard here. The conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah is the most precarious part of the Iran deal. Neither Israel nor the militant group signed the agreement — but it is supposed to end their fighting, and Iran has signaled its willingness to risk renewed war in the region for the sake of its interests in Lebanon.

Earlier Saturday, Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed at least 16 people, including two children, hours after reports emerged of a ceasefire agreement there. Seven people remained trapped under the rubble after the strikes hit the southern city of Nabatiyeh and nearby villages. The death toll in the latest war between Israel and Hezbollah has now surpassed 4,000.

Why does this matter to you personally? If you drive a car, heat your home with oil or gas, or buy basically anything that gets shipped — energy prices are directly tied to what happens in that strait. The U.S. and Iran this week reached a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trading corridor whose months-long closure disrupted global oil supply and caused energy prices to skyrocket. Any disruption — real or just threatened — can ripple through gas prices, airline tickets, and grocery bills within days.

The nuclear piece is the longer game. The discussions in Switzerland are expected to focus on Iran's nuclear program. Tehran maintains it is peaceful, though it has highly enriched uranium that could be used to build multiple atomic bombs. Those talks are expected to be extremely difficult. The 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump scrapped during his first term, took more than 18 months to negotiate. The interim deal gives negotiators 60 days to come up with a nuclear agreement, but that can be extended.

Bottom line: the deal is fragile, the ceasefire in Lebanon is shakier still, and Sunday's talks in Switzerland are the first real test of whether any of this holds together.