Strait of Hormuz Opens Back Up — Tanker Traffic Resumes After 111-Day Gridlock

Here's the big picture: the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil flows — has been effectively shut down since late February 2026, when U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a war that locked up global energy shipping for months. Now, a deal is in place to reopen it. But calling it fully "open" is a stretch.

So what happened? On February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran, and within 48 hours, the Strait of Hormuz — the only way in or out of the Persian Gulf — had effectively closed. Every major shipping company you've heard of, from Maersk to MSC to Hapag-Lloyd, pulled their ships from the route. War-risk insurance premiums exploded, going from 0.25% of a vessel's value before the conflict to as high as 8% — that's potentially $8 million in insurance costs for a single tanker trip. Over 500 ships ended up stranded inside the Gulf with nowhere safe to go. At least 14 commercial sailors died during the conflict.

Fast forward to mid-June: Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian signed a Memorandum of Understanding (basically a formal written agreement — think of it as a peace framework, not yet a full treaty) calling for the strait to reopen, toll-free, for at least 60 days. Trump celebrated on social media, telling ships of the world to "start your engines." Oil prices dipped below $80 a barrel on the news.

But here's the catch — and this matters to you directly. The strait isn't really "open" the way a highway reopens after a crash. Early tanker movements are happening, yes. A handful of Saudi supertankers carrying millions of barrels of crude slipped through. Qatar sent an empty LNG tanker back in for the first time since the war started, signaling it's getting ready to ramp up gas exports. About 18 transits were recorded across a key 24-hour window — the highest count since the conflict began. But before the war, 90 to 110 ships crossed daily.

Why does this affect you? Because the Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's daily oil supply and a huge chunk of global liquefied natural gas. When it's stuck, energy prices spike globally — and that ripples into what you pay for gas, groceries, and pretty much anything shipped by truck. The good news: Goldman Sachs has already lowered its oil price forecast to $80/barrel for the end of 2026. Lower oil prices, over time, tend to ease pressure on fuel costs and consumer goods.

The bad news: shipping experts say it could take weeks just to clear the backlog of 500+ vessels sitting in the Gulf. Mines may still be in the water — clearance operations haven't been completed, and that alone could take up to six months. Insurance premiums are still sky-high, meaning many shippers are in a wait-and-see mode. The big container lines that rerouted around Africa's Cape of Good Hope have already locked in contracts, schedules, and fuel plans for that longer route — unwinding all that takes time. Don't expect prices at the store to snap back overnight.

The bottom line: the diplomatic door has opened, and the first ships are moving through. But this is a slow, cautious crawl back to normal — not a grand reopening. Watch the next few weeks closely.