Study Finds DC National Guard Deployment Had Zero Effect on Violent Crime — and Their Numbers Are About to Double

So here's the deal: the federal government has had roughly 2,000 National Guard troops patrolling the streets of Washington, D.C. since last August. The White House called it the "Safe and Beautiful Task Force" — a mission to fight crime and clean up the capital. President Trump was quick to take a victory lap, claiming he'd transformed D.C. "in literally four days." Now a new independent study has looked at the actual numbers, and the results are... complicated, to put it kindly.

The study comes from the Niskanen Center, a nonpartisan policy think tank based in D.C. Researchers dug into D.C. Metropolitan Police crime data covering August through December 2025 — the first five months of the deployment — and here's what they found:

The Guard did make a dent in one type of crime. There was a 24% drop in what researchers call "opportunistic" property crimes — think car break-ins, auto theft, stuff that happens when someone sees an easy target in a busy area. That's not nothing. But violent crime? Robberies, assaults, the stuff that actually makes people feel unsafe walking home at night? Zero measurable effect.

Here's why that distinction matters: researchers say violent crime is driven by totally different forces than property crime. It tends to stem from interpersonal conflicts, social network dynamics, and the structural conditions of high-poverty neighborhoods — not the kind of thing a uniformed soldier standing near the Lincoln Memorial is going to stop. The Guard was largely deployed to busy tourist corridors, not the neighborhoods where violent crime is most concentrated.

Oh, and about that cost: this isn't cheap. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the deployment runs about $1.5 million per day. Each Guard member costs roughly $607 per day — about 60% more than a D.C. Metro Police officer at $384 per day. Over five months, that's around $185 million in total. The study points out that same money could have funded more than 1,300 additional police officer-years. The researchers were blunt: the Guard is "a blunt and expensive instrument."

Even one of the study's own authors wasn't willing to call it a total failure. "I think on balance the National Guard's deployment is not a failure," said Richard Hahn of the Niskanen Center. His real point: the same or better results on property crime could've been achieved much more cheaply with smarter, targeted traditional policing.

The White House wasn't having it. Spokesperson Abigail Jackson dismissed the study, saying it "should not be taken seriously," and insisted the task force had "driven down crime" and "improved quality of life" — without offering any supporting data.

Now here's the kicker: despite all of this, the troop count in D.C. is set to double. Federal officials announced a "summer surge" that will push the number of Guard members to 5,000 ahead of America's 250th birthday celebration this summer. Whether that surge ends after the festivities — or becomes the new normal — is anybody's guess.

If you're a D.C. resident or a taxpayer anywhere in the country, this one's worth paying attention to. The question isn't just whether the Guard is helping — it's whether doubling down on something that hasn't moved the needle on violent crime is the right call, especially at $1.5 million a day.