Trump-Endorsed Candidates Sweep Arizona Primary Races

So Arizona just held its primary elections, and if you're wondering whether Trump still controls the Republican Party heading into the midterms, the answer from Arizona is a pretty loud "yes." Every major candidate he endorsed in the state's biggest races won, and honestly, some of them won by a lot.

Here's the rundown: Congressman Andy Biggs, a longtime Trump loyalist who used to chair the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, crushed his more moderate GOP rival, Congressman David Schweikert, in the primary for governor — by a landslide, taking around 73% of the vote. Biggs will now face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November. For secretary of state, Trump-aligned state lawmaker Alexander Kolodin won the GOP nod — notable because that office actually runs elections in the state. And in the open House seat Biggs is vacating, former Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb won the Republican nomination despite a swirling scandal — an Arizona Republic investigation found that he used threats to suppress allegations of sexting and shared homophobic and racist texts (Lamb denies it). Meanwhile, in the competitive 1st District, former NFL kicker Jay Feely — who leaned hard on his relationship with Trump and also poured over $300,000 of his own money into the race — beat out a more hardline rival to win the GOP nomination there too.

Why should you care if you don't live in Arizona? Because this state is a genuine battleground, and of the 18 congressional districts across the country considered true toss-ups, two of them are in Arizona — both critical battles if Democrats want a shot at retaking the House. So how these races play out in November could help decide who controls Congress for the next two years.

But here's the twist: winning a primary with Trump's endorsement doesn't guarantee winning in November. Biggs and Kolodin largely won thanks to endorsements from Trump and the backing of Turning Point, but Trump's endorsement isn't as meaningful in the general election when these MAGA candidates have to appeal to a broader portion of voters. In fact, one race actually shifted against Republicans after the results came in — the Cook Political Report labeled the Feely race as a toss-up ahead of the primary, but switched its analysis to reflect a slight Democratic advantage afterward. That's because the more hardline candidate lost that particular primary to a comparatively moderate one, which analysts think plays better in the fall.

Bottom line: this primary is a signal, not a final verdict. Trump's grip on the GOP base is clearly strong, but Arizona is also a state where Hobbs beat a Trump-backed candidate for governor back in 2022 — so the general election could look very different from the primary.